Is it gonna be sloppy? And does that change things?

With nearly 2" of rain falling at CH-Downs this past weekend, the track turned into a quagmire. There is only one day this week that will be sunny, and on Derby day there is a 40% chance of rain. If the track is listed as muddy or sloppy, which horse in your opinion, will have the edge to take home the crown? And, will this track condition change your mind about who you think will win or about who you will lay your hard earned $$ on? My moolah is going on "Conveyance" and Bobby B (from go to woah)..........